Author: Juan Martin González Cabañas – 03/05/2020
Synthesis and analysis of the work Panorama of geopolitical trends Horizon 2040 prepared by theIEEES (Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos – Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies).
The work “Panorama of Geopolitical Trends; 2040 horizon “ prepared by the IEEES provides a prospective look that gathers possible global geopolitical trends and scenarios for the period 2020-2040 (even with subsequent long-term forecasts).
For the preparation of these documents, 200 experts from different Spanish civil and military organizations from the Armed Forces, companies and universities have been consulted.
It’s a prospective analysis work on the current world and its possible evolution until the year 2040 and beyond. For this, five macro-factors have been defined: the physical factor, the human factor, the economic factor, the socio-political factor and the military factor.
In turn, each of these factors groups the individual study of eighteen thematic areas separately, although they are related to each other to a greater or lesser degree.
Thus, the physical factor groups: climate change, global common spaces, the space sector and cyberspace. For its part, the human factor encompasses: demographics, gender inequality, religions and education. The economic factor unites non-energy resources, energy, geoeconomics and the objectives of sustainable development. Regarding the sociopolitical factor, it frames communication, globalization, and sociopolitical foundations (culture, beliefs, and ideas). Finally, the military factor analyzes the information age, technology, conflict and defense.
Each of the eighteen areas ends with security implications at the global, regional and national levels.
Continue reading, please download the Analytical Dossier AD_9_2020 ISSN 2704-6419
Juan Martin González Cabañas, Analyst at Dossier Geopolitico