Author: Francesco Trani – 25/04/2026
Nodal Deterrence: How Small Actors Produce Structural Stability
The Case of Taiwan and TSMC
Francesco Trani
ABSTRACT –International Relations literature traditionally treats small actors as objects of great power competition — contested, protected, or sacrificed according to logics that exclude them from strategic agency. This paper examines the concept of nodal deterrence: the mechanism through which a small actor achieves structural security by positioning itself as an indispensable node for great powers engaged in simultaneous competition. The mechanism rests on three necessary and sufficient conditions — an involuntary monopoly over a critical resource, simultaneous dependencies among competing great powers, and technical or economic irreplaceability — and unfolds across an involuntary structural phase and a conscious strategic phase. Taiwan and TSMC constitute the paradigmatic case, tested through a comparative analysis that includes ASML, Qatar, the Panama Canal, and historical Switzerland. Nodal deterrence does not entirely explain Cross-Strait stability — rather, it demonstrates that Taiwan is not merely an object of Sino-American rivalry, but an actor that autonomously produces structural stability.
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