Autore: Geopolitica Rivista – 30/06/2023
GEOPOLITICA Vol XII n. 1/2023 – L’Asia centrale nella ridefinizione degli equilibri mondiali – Indice Abstracts
FOCUS: L’ASIA CENTRALE NELLA RIDEFINIZIONE DEGLI EQUILIBRI MONDIALI
Trade and investment in Central Asia
Martino Castellani
Director, Italian trade Office of Almaty, Kazakhstan
ABSTRACT
Central Asia is a region with vast resources and a high potential. It consists of five countries, which have both much in common and many differences. The article aims to study the main lines of trade and investments in Central Asia and see who the main foreign players are. It will delve briefly into the similarities and differences between the different countries, give a brief economic comparison between them and provide information to reason about the influence these factors might have on politics, but without carrying out a political analysis. Finally, it will discuss the economic structure of the most relevant of these countries, Kazakhstan, and the rise of SMEs in a system which is better known for large SOEs. By doing so it will consider some of the opportunities which might be available for Italian companies.
It has been written to inform readers on an all too often forgotten or badly known area of the world, which has instead a growing strategic relevance. The article will draw on trade and investment data from main Western sources, usually international ones like World Bank, IMF, EBRD but also on national ones like ISTAT, QAZSTAT and others, plus a few press articles with official declarations, from government members of the Central Asian countries.
KEY WORDS: tradelinks between prosperity and fragility
The delicate issue of water resources in Central Asia
La delicata questione delle risorse idriche in Asia Centrale
Virginia Morena Gatto – Università degli Studi Internazionali di Roma
Vision & Global Trends. International Institute for Global Analyses
ABSTRACT
Water is the source of life, a vital element to the development of humanity and society, and, above all, it is non-renewable. This makes it an even more crucial and precious element whose delicate management often gives rise to tensions and conflicts in areas where this resource is scarce. The case of Central Asia – hence the so-called ‘-stan countries’ – is emblematic. For a more accurate understanding of these dynamics, it is useful to consider, from a historical perspective, what has changed over the years regarding the management of shared resources. The day after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the newly independent Central Asian Republics had to assume responsibility for the management of water distribution and irrigation systems. In conjunction with this, it should be borne in mind that Central Asia is an area that, due to its structural characteristics, must contend with an uneven distribution of water resources: water is mainly concentrated in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. This unevenness, therefore, leads to a strong interdependence between the states. In this context, the evaporation of Lake Aral not only represents one of the largest environmental disasters ever recorded but has further challenged the delicate management of water resources in the area.
KEYWORDS: Central Asia, water management, agriculture
Western Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) as actors of contemporary hybrid warfare in the Central Asian region
Anna Romanonvna Goncharenko, Andrei Viktorovich Manoilo
The Faculty of Political Science,
Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia
ABSTRACT
Thevariety of actors involved in contemporary hybrid warfare. Western non-governmental organizations are prominent participants in destabilizing operations around the world. Central Asia attracts the West not only with their resources, but also with their proximity to the borders of their main rivals: Russia, Iran, and China. After the collapse of the USSR, Western NGOs have started to penetrate into the Central Asian republics, working in various fields (education, public administration, medicine, etc.) So the purpose of this article is analyze of western NGOs activities in the Central Asian region, their goals and instruments. The methods of comparative analysis (comparison of the instruments of influence used by the United Kingdom and the United States and their interests) and comparative historical analysis (identification of the features of western policy in Central Asia over the past 30 years) were used. Funded from the state budgets of the USA, the United Kingdom and their allies, NGOs are active in the Central Asian region, interacting with various political forces, civil society, youth and the media. Thus, the network structure of such organizations, their awareness of the internal problems of the state, established contacts with the local population and involvement in internal political processes allows us to consider such organizations as channels of influence on the states in which they operate, that is, a potential threat to national security and the ruling regimes which are seeking to conduct an independent politics.
KEYWORDS: non-governmental organizations, hybrid warfare, Central Asia
Cooperation of Brazil with Russia and Central Asian countries: the comparative research
Vladimir Goliney
Institute of Latin American Studies Russian Academy of Science
ABSTRACT
The current article examines geopolitical interests and the relationship of Brazil with Russia and Central Asian countries. The author analyses 3 data sets to see, if the connections between countries are profound. Firstly, trade and economic indicators (mutual exports and imports from 1992 to 2021). These indicators are also compared with trade that Brazil has with other countries in the world (indicators are divided on several regions: Latin America (South America, Central America, Caribbean basin plus Mexico), North America (the USA, Canada), Europe, Asia, Africa, Middle East and Oceania). Secondly, the political interaction (analysis of existing agreements signed by Brazil from 1822 to 1st January 2023 with other countries; the analysis of the content of such agreements for Russia and Central Asia). Thirdly, the number of visits of Brazilian presidents to Russia and Central Asia since 1985 to January 2023 (to see the depth of interactions between these countries and the evolution of political agenda). The conducted research shows that Russia has a specific place in Brazil’s foreign policy (in the sets of agreements and visits) while Central Asia complements BRICS strategy for multipolarity. Kazakhstan has the most varied relations with Brazil among other Central Asian states. The real cooperation between Brazil and Central Asia began only during Lula da Silva Precedency, thus, his new presidential turn is expected to revive relations of Brazil with this region.
KEYWORDS: BRICS, Brazil and Russia relations, Brazil and Central Asia
America Confronting Eurasia: Enlisting Heartlands, Checkerboards, and Shatterbelts in Describing the Continents’ Rival Security Placements
Phil Kelly
Emporia State University, Kansas, USA
ABSTRACT
The article focuses on the potential strategic threat to United States security arising from a united Eurasian front with deep hostility, possessing powerful navies capable of launching a significant invasion against North America. The author contends that although such dangers were historically limited, a stronger Eurasia could pose a more formidable challenge in the future, suggesting that the concept of a resilient “fortress America” may be unrealistic.
The author identifies two key factors that mitigate the perceived threat: first, the inherent geopolitical divisions within Eurasia, described as a “checkerboard” fragmentation and occasional “shatterbelts,” which could impede a united assault. Second, the presence of an isolated, affluent, and robust American “heartland” equipped with a globally dominant navy employing strategies like “offshore balancing” and “forward presence.” These strategies are seen as instrumental in securing friendly Eurasian bases and alliances, enhancing the United States’ security from a distance.
In essence, the article describes the dynamic between a potentially weakened and distracted Eurasia, marked by divisive factors, and a secure North America with naval dominance. The author posits that these inherent placements will persist as challenges between the two regions in the foreseeable future, forming the focal point of the essay.
KEYWORDS: Infrastructure, Baltic Sea, Special Economic Zones
The -stan Nations of Asia
L’Asia degli -stan
Gino Lanzara
Visiting Research Fellow, Webster University of Ginevra
ABSTRACT
The area of the “Stan” State is the continental heart of the East; although peripheral and apparently distant from the jolts of relevant history, it’s from those lands that numerous geopolitical events have taken their initial moves. Currently an unprecedented and larger game involving great powers and regional entities is underway: the reward will be both strategic and geoeconomic, considered the lying energy reserves and their access.
KEYWORDS: Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), geoeconomics, multi-vector foreign policy
Foreign policy trajectories of post-Soviet Central Asia
Dina Malysheva,
Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO)
ABSTRACT
Given commitment to a multi-vector strategy, five post-Soviet Central Asian countries tend to diversify their foreign policy trajectories. Objective interests determine their gravitation towards closer cooperation with Russia and China, that retain their attractiveness as priority external partners. Among other alternative vectors of Central Asian international policy, Turkey, the USA, and the European Union predominate. As a result, Central Asia turns into an object of multilateral rivalry, while the dependence of the region on external factors often stimulates crises and international antagonisms.
KEYWORDS: Central Asia, multi-vector strategy, foreign policy
Scientific and technological cooperation within framework of Eurasian Economic Union: development and challenges
Berik Mirmanov
Institute of World Economics and Politics, Kazakhstan)
Vision & Global Trends. International Institute for Global Analyses, Italy
ABSTRACT
The aim of this article is to provide the reader with essential understanding of the current processes of scientific and technical cooperation within the EAEU. The situation regarding the normative legal basis of the aspect of scientific and technical integration and cooperation is presented briefly and does not have an aim to disclose the whole framework in detail. The material also provides a short overview of the historical background of creation of the EAEU. The reader could make itself briefly acquainted on what were the objective reasons and conditions for the Union’s creation and what events preceded the very integration initiative. It also reveals the existing issues and impediments on the integration way, such as different readings and understanding of the fundamental acts on the Union, outlines the need to find the smart and smooth balance between the nationally oriented interests of each country and the necessity of reaching the state of a “common good”, as every country faces their own challenges triggered by the global cataclysms like the COVID pandemic and protracted economic recession implications. Certain attention is paid to the modern geopolitical settings affected by the economic sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation, who had to serve as the crucial economic locomotive of the Union. There was an example of difference in understanding of the goals of the EAEU given in the publication, namely the ongoing dispute between the Russian Federation and Belarus on one part and Kazakhstan on another. Another aim of the article is to try to elaborate over the question on possible “do no harm” format solutions, which could facilitate and accelerate the integration despite the controversial intentions of the national elites and the governments. Among the offered solutions is launching the project of common free academic area within the EAEU, which in author’s vision could have fostered and intensified so highly awaited exchange of know-hows and fresh technological ideas and innovations within borders of the Union. The researcher however shares its confidence on bright prospects and great potential of the EAEU activities concerting the scientific cooperation under the condition that the whole administrative and regulatory process will preserve the national interests of the participating states and offer attractive incentives incl. certain and concrete products capable of being embodied in reality.
KEYWORDS: Eurasian Economic Union, Eurasian integration, Scientific and technical cooperation within EAEU, Practical issues of EAEU scientific cooperation and integration.
Sub-regional cooperation within the framework of disaster risk reduction and mitigation in endorheic (inland) water bodies of the Aral Sea basin
Marat T. Narbayev
Doctor of geographical sciences
Head of the Department of Water Resources of the Executive Board of the International Fund for saving the Aral Sea in the Republic of Kazakhstan
ABSTRACT
The article is devoted to the modern aspects of the countries of Central Asia associated with new geopolitical and economic conditions, an increase in anthropogenic pressure on native ecosystems and recommendations for adaptation and mitigation of global climate change processes.
KEYWORDS: Central Asia, Aral Sea, water resources, Amudarya River, Syrdarya River
Battle for the heart of the world
Battaglia per il cuore del mondo
Manfredi Orlando – Osservatorio Globalizzazione
Emanuel Pietrobon – InsideOver
ABSTRACT
No region but Central Asia fits better under the motto “geography is destiny”, since everything that takes place here, from political relations to trade, is inherently tied to the geographical context.
This region, which lies in the heart of Asia, is where a key-chapter of the so-called great power competition, also known as the Cold War 2.0, is being written. It is where the remake of the Tournament of Shadows is being played, with the world’s major powers fighting for a sphere of influence.
It cannot be properly understood why Central Asia is as important for the Moscow-Beijing axis as it is for the West and for several other players without an in-depth description of its nature-gifted wealth.
KEYWORDS: natural resources, central Asia, great power competition
The European Union’s political relations with the five Central Asian countries: challenges and opportunities
Le relazioni politiche dell’Unione Europea con i cinque paesi dell’Asia centrale: sfide e opportunità
Federico Porto
EEAS, Unione Europea, Responsabile per il Tajikistan e il Kirghizistan
ABSTRACT
Central Asia is a vast and fascinating region, extending from the Caspian Sea in the west to bordering western China in the east. The five Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) share more than geography and have some common features: they are all landlocked, they have the same legacy, their exports focus on raw materials, and they all face significant influence from neighbouring powers, namely Russia and China The EU has significant stakes in this part of world, given the strategic geographical location and pivotal role of the region in Europe-Asia connectivity (energy, transport, digital…), its vast energy resources (Kazakhstan is the EU’s fourth supplier of crude oil), important market potential (around 75 million inhabitants, 35% of whom are under 15), its interest in regional security and migration (Afghanistan/possible spillover of terrorists) and its vicinity and close links to Russia (possible circumvention of EU sanctions). This article provides an overview of the state of play of EU bilateral and regional engagement with Central Asian countries, identifies challenges and aims to suggest some solutions for advancing EU interests.
KEYWORDS: connectivity, EU value; cooperation
Kipling’s “trap”. The fate of the West and the return of the Great Game
La «trappola» di Kipling. Il destino dell’Occidente e il ritorno del Grande Gioco
Giuseppe Romeo
Università del Piemonte Orientale, Università di Torino
ABSTRACT
The attention of the world seems to be entirely focused on the events of the crisis between Russia and Ukraine and not without reason. But not because the resolution of the conflict will somehow mark a winner or a loser (it will end as is typical of the non-war years: in the end, everyone will win). And not even because one could think again of a shift in the geopolitical axis of the world that counts towards an economically and politically fragile Europe in its most intimate assets: both economic-financial and of ethic, political and moral values. Indeed, the russo-ukrainian crisis has already demonstrated how and to what extent the “King of the world” prefers a return to the East in seeking for more cooperative relations directed by new centers of power capable of reorganizing the terms of relations no longer only at western matrix. China and Russia, for example, seem to be moving towards this option, promoting new aggregators such as the BRICS or emphasizing the role of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization supported by that informal community which has been defining itself, for years now and emblematically, as the non-Western World (nWW). Trajectories, these, that will mark international relations this time according to perspectives that escape even Western neorealist or neoliberal pre-visions. Perspectives, which in the confrontation between multilevel and multidimensional actors, will restore space to the “Heartland”. The Mackinder’s Heartland which in Great Game will once again see the overlapping of American and Western interests – aimed at making an economic model incapable of self-referencing survive – the Eurasian interests as a multipolar alternative ready to claim leadership of that until recently, the international community was still interpreted too much in a Eurocentric key. A sort of “Kipling’s trap”, where the burden for the world of tomorrow seems to be represented, this time, by the West.
KEYWORDS: NATO, non-Western World, Heartland
Central Asia Focus: The World Has the Opportunity to Forge a New Silk Route. Will It Succeed?
Domenico Salerno, Visiting Professor, IIS M.Rigoni Stern – Dina Horwedel, Director of Public Education – American Indian College Fund
ABSTRACT
The Ukrainian conflict created a watershed moment, causing suffering and destruction in Ukraine and destabilizing world energy (natural gas/semiconductors), commodities, and agricultural (lithium carbonate and wheat) markets. The world now must seek alternate trade sources and routes in Central Asian nations like Uzbekistan.
As Central Asian nations position themselves to work with Russia, China, and the West, new trade routes (“Belt and Road Initiative” or BRI or new silk routes), as defined by China, could be the new bridge to and from the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and the Far East. Uzbekistan and its neighbors must solve several political, logistical, and environmental challenges to innovate and collaborate to open markets in a region that only decades ago was considered poor compared to the industrialized west. The ‘via del mare’ (sea route) and ‘via del ferro’ (rail route) will serve as the multimodal link to Central Asia, or the flywheel, as noted in several summits and appointments, such as the “New Silk Way” forum (where the guidelines of a wider diversification logistics, infrastructure, and new cargo routes ), the ‘Astana Economic Forum’, or the well-known SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) theatre of heads of state and foreign investment decision-makers.
KEYWORDS: Uzbekistan, Central Asia, Energy, Agriculture, Environment
New connectivity of Central Asia in conditions of transformation, geopolitical changes and challenges
Nuova connettività dell’Asia Centrale in condizioni di trasformazione, di cambiamenti geopolitici e di sfide
Nažen T. Sarsembekov
Ph.D. College of Trade, Astana, Kazakistan
ABSTRACT
Central Asia as a geopolitical space, including the territories of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, emerged in 1991 after the collapse of the USSR. Even the former historical and geographical name of these states “Srednyaya Aziya and Kazakhstan”, or “Turkestan”, is still widely used in the scientific world. The current designation of the region’s post-Soviet countries as “Central Asia” (Zentral’naya Aziya ed.) has been generally accepted to reflect its role in international politics and the world economy.
At the same time, one should distinguish, from a scientific point of view, another Central Asia, a larger sub-region, which, in addition to the states mentioned above, also includes Mongolia, the western part of China (Xinjiang) and ‘ Afghanistan. Therefore, the concept of Central Asia including some states in the region depends on the issue under consideration and its object. The newly independent states of Central Asia, having a common prehistory of socio-historical development, ancient ethnic, linguistic and socio-economic ties, objectively gravitate towards regional integration. Studying the processes, formation and development of statehood in Central Asia, it is necessary to consider not only the new geopolitical situation, but also connectivity and its peculiarities in the historical legacy of the peoples of the countries of the region.
KEYWORDS: connectivity, political and demographic transformation, migration, transport and logistical communications, integration, regional cooperation.
Thirty years of Kazakhstan diplomacy
Trent’anni di diplomazia del Kazakistan
Fabrizio Vielmini
Westminster University, Taškent, Uzbekistan
ABSTRACT
Starting almost from a blank slate, in the thirty years since its foundation, Kazakhstan’s diplomacy has managed to establish itself on a global scale. The country has acted as a protagonist in some of the most important multilateral fora in the post-bipolar world and acted as a mediator in the Syrian and Ukrainian crises, thus creating a reputation as a predictable and responsible actor, capable of making a substantial contribution to the cause of peace between the Nations. Through active diplomacy, the new State first of all affirmed its sovereignty by placing itself in the orbit of Atlantic unipolarity initiated by the United States. At the same time, skillfully led by President N. A. Nazarbaev, Astana’s diplomacy managed to reconcile its activism with the process of recomposition of the post-Soviet space led by Putin’s Russia. The relational networks established in parallel with the rise of China in the region have come to constitute the third pillar of Kazakhstan diplomacy. Of particular relevance is the role that Kazakhstan has tried to play in relations between Russia and Europe, particularly after the worsening of the crisis in Ukraine, unfortunately remaining unheeded.
KEYWORDS: Kazakhstan, Diplomacy, Multi vectorial policy
ORIZZONTI
Relevance of the identity element in the geopolitical conflict between Russia and the West
Rilevanza dell’elemento identitario nel conflitto geopolitico tra russia ed occidente
Luigi Copertino
Associazione Identità Europea
ABSTRACT
In geopolitical conflicts, spiritual, philosophical, historical-cultural, ideological, identity and religious factors also have an important role. Not only, therefore, economic interests, strategies, power relations and military positioning. This is also proving valid in the case of the Russian-Ukrainian war as an episode of the clash between Russia and the West. Although techno-financial factors are decisive and prevalent in geopolitical conflicts, it would however be a tragic mistake to neglect the identity element because identity and spiritual factors are always an index of the depth of the geopolitical dynamics in progress and neglecting them does not help to understand, behind the appearance, the complexity of international relations, even within the same factions in the field. Starting from the historically controversial notion of “West”, which does not coincide at all with that of “Europe”, the author examines the basic lines of a comparison between the weltanschauung of Russia and the West, in their geopolitical implications as well as in those concerning the economic paradigm assumed by both.
KEYWORDS: spirituality, West, Europe, Russia
The evolution of the Maritime Doctrine of the Russian Federation
L’evoluzione della Dottrina Marittima della Federazione Russa
Tommaso Merler
Vision & Global Trends – International Institute for Global Analyses
ABSTRACT
The author, after a historical excursus of post-Soviet Russia, describes the main coordinates of the so-called military doctrine of General Gerasimov and, within the same military thought, compares the Maritime Doctrines of the Russian Federation of 2015 and 2022, identifying continuity and discontinuity. In particular, the new geopolitical framework from the beginning of President Vladimir Putin’s era to the present day is being taken into account. The modernisation of the Russian armed forces and therefore also of the naval sector has allowed Russia to maintain and develop a global strategy focused on border security. In the text are analyzed not only the geopolitical quadrants of greatest interest to the Navy of the Russian Federation but also the weaknesses of shipping and future ambitions.
KEYWORDS: Gerasimov doctrine, Russian Maritime Doctrine 2015, Russian Maritime Doctrine 2022
COMMENTI E DIBATTITI
Between energy independence and ecological transition: new challenges and prospects for Italy
Tra indipendenza energetica e transizione ecologica: nuove sfide e prospettive per l’Italia
Fabio Pistella
Ente Nazionale di Ricerca e promozione per la standardizzazione, Consigliere – Già Presidente CNR e Direttore Generale ENEA
RECENSIONI
Terre rare. La Cina e la geopolitica dei minerali strategici, Edizioni EGEA, 2021
di Sophia Kalantzakos, Edizioni Egea, 2021
David Berti
ART S.p.A.