Authors: Andrej Il’nitskij & Alexander Losev – 14/01/2021
THE GEOPOLITICAL BASIS OF RUSSIA’S FUTURE
«Die schönste Stadt der Welt ist die, in der man glücklich ist»
(The most beautiful city in the world is the one where you are happy)
Erich Maria Remarque
The coronavirus pandemic has brought the world closer to the threshold of a new geopolitical era – to a structural super-cycle that will last several decades and begin with a period of disorder and chaos. We will witness the multidimensional rivalry of Great powers in an era of global catastrophes i.e. economic crises, wars, large-scale cyber-attacks, pandemics and natural disasters related to climate change.
The geo-economic space is becoming more diverse and unstable by virtue of the deglobalization process (or trends) and increasing protectionism, as well as due to recent technological and digital advances and their wide availability. This is a very harsh and possibly cruel time, the period of cold and hot conflicts.
This time will last at least the entire third decade of the 21st century.
The next global economic crisis is on the horizon and it will be much more potent than the 2008 crisis and the 2020 coronavirus recession.
The impending crisis will cause socio-political upheavals in most countries of the world. The destructive force of these shocks will be inversely proportional to the quality of public administration, socio-political measures and economic incentives, and efforts to put each country on a sustainable development path in a changing world.
The Powers that can protect themselves and survive during this period will create new rules and new world order.
The losers will be left behind forever, and some will remain only in history, as happened with the great empires of ancient time or some European States in the 20th century.
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Andrej Ilnitskij, adviser to the Minister of defense of the Russian Federation, the state adviser of the 3rd class, member of the Council for foreign and defense policy, Moscow
Alexander Losev, CEO of JSC “Sputnik – Asset Management”, member of the Presidium of the Council for foreign and defense policy, Moscow