Author: Alberto Cossu – 28/05/2025
The Middle East and NATO: A Necessary Balance
Recent developments in Syria, the ongoing conflict in Gaza, and Trump’s recent trip to the Gulf countries remind us of the strategic importance of the Middle East for Western political decision-makers. Despite a growing debate in the West, particularly in the United States, regarding a potential downscaling of commitment in the region in favor of areas like the Indo-Pacific, a real disengagement still appears far from realization. This dynamic is particularly relevant for NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), which prioritizes the territorial defense of Europe but cannot afford to ignore the Middle East.
The relationship between the Middle East and NATO is intrinsically complex and interconnected. Geographical proximity alone would prevent complete disregard, but it is the shared series of security interests and overlapping challenges that make cooperation not only desirable but strategically essential. Terrorism, the vast humanitarian implications of mass migration, and concerns about nuclear proliferation are just some of the transnational threats that require a collaborative approach. It is in this context that deepening cooperation between NATO and Middle Eastern countries takes on critical significance, also in light of evolving regional dynamics.
The Istanbul Cooperation Initiative and NATO’s Current Presence in the Region
In 2004, recognizing the need for structured engagement with the region, NATO established the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative (ICI). This initiative has served as the alliance’s main platform for dialogue and collaboration with the Arab world. Countries such as Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Kuwait currently participate in the initiative[1], formalizing regional cooperation that has fostered high-level visits, joint training exercises, and military training exchanges. NATO’s on-the-ground presence in the region is solidly rooted in the ICI-NATO Regional Centre in Kuwait[2].
Recently, there has been a notable increase in high-level engagement between NATO and the Gulf countries. An example was the recent visit of the Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, to Kuwait for high-level talks on cooperation between NATO and Gulf countries[3]. Similarly, in February, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte visited Baghdad, his first in the region since taking office last October. During this trip, he reviewed NATO’s role in regional security through the work of the NATO Mission in Iraq (NMI)[4]. Established in October 2018 at the request of the Iraqi government[5], the NMI is a significant operation involving several hundred NATO soldiers engaged in training Iraqi security forces. The primary objective of this mission is to prevent the re-emergence of Daesh (ISIS), a constant reminder of the persistent threat of terrorism in the region and beyond. Currently, the NMI represents the Alliance’s most significant overseas operation, highlighting the importance NATO places on Iraq’s stability.
The Need for Greater Strategic Awareness within NATO
Despite this tangible level of commitment, it is evident that NATO has yet to fully grasp the intrinsic strategic value of a deeper strengthening of relations with the Gulf states and, more generally, the importance for European security of such a close and interconnected region. An analysis of NATO’s 2022 Strategic Concept, a fundamental guiding document for the alliance, reveals that the Middle East was only briefly mentioned, and the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative was not even cited[6]. 2024 marked the twentieth anniversary of the ICI, a significant milestone that, however, was not accompanied by major events organized by NATO to commemorate it. Furthermore, it was barely mentioned in the final communiqué of last year’s NATO summit in Washington[7]. To make matters worse, a recent report commissioned by NATO on expanding engagement with the Global South offered little meaningful analysis or actionable recommendations for improving relations with the Middle East. This apparent lack of emphasis contrasts sharply with the geopolitical reality and security challenges the region presents.
Changes in the Middle East and NATO’s Stance in the Current Context
The Middle East is a region in constant flux, characterized by a complex interplay of regional powers and external actors. Donald Trump’s presence in the White House, which began a few months ago, is already influencing regional dynamics. The Trump administration’s approach, which tends to favor bilateral agreements and more assertive rhetoric, particularly towards Iran and other adversaries, could create new opportunities but also new tensions.
An example of this dynamic is the focus on Saudi Arabia. Even before the current administration, discussions had begun on formalizing ties between NATO and the Kingdom. Rutte’s predecessor at the helm of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, made a historic first visit to Saudi Arabia in 2023[8]. Since then, discussions on formalizing ties between the alliance and the Kingdom have continued. Although Saudi authorities have so far chosen not to join the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative, perhaps it is time to re-examine the issue and find mutually beneficial ways to improve collaboration. Saudi Arabia, with its growing influence as a regional actor and its strategic position in the Persian Gulf, represents a crucial partner for regional stability and security, especially at a time when traditional alliances are being tested and new dynamics are emerging.
The approach of the current U.S. administration could push some regional actors to reconsider their strategies and seek greater alignment with external actors, including NATO, to balance uncertainties and new dynamics. For NATO, greater involvement with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries could mean a more robust and influential partner in the fight against terrorism, in intelligence sharing, and in promoting maritime security and freedom of navigation in crucial global trade routes. For these countries, cooperation with NATO could strengthen defense capabilities, improve interoperability with Western forces, and further integrate their security architectures.
Geopolitical Challenges and Global Interconnection
The challenges afflicting the Middle East are not isolated, and their repercussions extend far beyond regional borders. The war in Syria has generated one of the most severe humanitarian and migratory crises in recent history, with millions of displaced people seeking refuge in Europe and neighboring countries. This phenomenon puts a strain on European social and economic systems, highlighting how instability in one region can have direct and profound repercussions on another. Similarly, the conflict in Gaza, with its regional and global implications, underscores the intrinsic volatility of the region and the need for constant and thoughtful engagement.
Nuclear proliferation, a constant threat given Iranian nuclear ambition, represents another area of deep shared concern[9]. A nuclear-armed Middle East would exponentially increase the risk of escalation and destabilization, with catastrophic consequences for global security. NATO, with its experience in deterrence and non-proliferation, can play a crucial role in promoting stability and preventing the spread of weapons of mass destruction in the region. Furthermore, European energy security largely depends on the stability of the Middle East and the maritime routes that cross the Gulf. Disruptions in oil and gas supplies from the region would have a significant impact on European economies, further strengthening the argument for active NATO engagement in safeguarding regional security and stability.
Beyond Territorial Defense: A Broader Role for NATO
NATO, born as a collective defense alliance for Europe in a Cold War context, has evolved over the years to address a wider range of threats and challenges. While territorial defense remains its core, geopolitical reality compels the Alliance to adopt a broader perspective and recognize that European security is intrinsically linked to the stability of surrounding regions. The Middle East, with its geographical proximity and multiple interconnections, is a fundamental test bed for this evolution. For NATO, this means moving beyond a purely reactive mindset and adopting a more proactive and holistic approach to regional security. This includes not only military cooperation and training but also strengthening institutions, supporting governance, and promoting resilience in Middle Eastern societies. Deeper and more strategic engagement with the Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, could serve as a catalyst for a more comprehensive approach.
NATO should, in the future, dedicate greater attention to the Middle East in its strategic documents and official communiqués, reflecting its critical importance. Adequate commemoration of milestones such as the twentieth anniversary of the ICI and greater visibility for its activities in the region are fundamental steps to signal a more decisive commitment. Furthermore, future reports and analyses commissioned by NATO should offer concrete and actionable recommendations for improving relations with the Middle East.
In summary, while the Western debate on its role in the world continues, the reality of the Middle East dictates a clear awareness: ignoring this region means doing so at one’s own risk. For NATO, this translates into the need for deeper, more strategic, and more visible engagement. Strengthening ties with the Gulf countries, revitalizing initiatives like the ICI, and fully recognizing the interconnection between Middle East and European security are not just desirable options but strategic imperatives to ensure peace and stability in an increasingly interdependent world.
[1] https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_52957.htm
[2] https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_174418.htm
[3] https://www.italpress.com/presidente-comitato-militare-nato-dragone-visita-in-kuwait/#:~:text=Il%20presidente%20del%20Comitato%20militare%20della%20Nato%20Dragone%20in%20visita%20in%20Kuwait ; https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_234444.htm?selectedLocale=en#:~:text=The%20NIRC%20is%20the%20first,and%20training%2C%20and%20public%20diplomacy
[4] https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_232815.htm
[5] https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_166051.htm
[6] https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/strategic-concepts_199187.htm
[7] https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_227678.htm