Author: Alberto Cossu – 08/05/2025
The Kashmir Conflict: Risks and Prospects
Alberto Cossu – 08/05/2025
South Asia, the beating heart of geopolitical tensions and historic rivalries, once again finds itself on the brink of crisis. The terrorist attack on April 22, 2025, in Pahalgam, Indian Kashmir, has reignited a latent crisis involving India, Pakistan, and, indirectly, China. The attack, which resulted in the deaths of twenty-eight civilians, mostly Hindu tourists, triggered a chain of military and diplomatic reactions that threaten to destabilize not only the Himalayan region but also the balance of power across the Asian continent. In this scenario, the Kashmir issue remains the epicenter of a dispute intertwining identity, resources, military strategies, and global interests, while Pakistan once again reveals itself as a mosaic of fragile identities and contradictory aspirations.
The New Escalation: Attack, Retaliation, and Nuclear Fears
The Pahalgam attack, attributed by India to terrorist cells linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba and, indirectly, to Pakistani intelligence services, represents yet another episode in a long series of cross-border attacks marking the region’s recent history. India’s response was swift: on May 7, New Delhi launched “Operation Sindoor,” striking nine targets with missiles and air raids across Pakistani Kashmir and Punjab. India claimed to have neutralized key infrastructures of groups such as Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba, emphasizing the “targeted and measured” nature of the operation and denying any strikes on Pakistani military installations. However, at least twenty-six civilians, including women and children, were among the victims, and a mosque and a medical clinic were also hit. Among the stated objectives, the killing of Maulana Masood Azhar, the charismatic leader of Jaish-e-Mohammed, along with members of his family, sends a strong signal of India’s determination to strike at the top of regional terrorism.
Pakistan’s reaction was immediate and harsh: Islamabad called the Indian operation an “act of war,” claimed to have shot down five Indian jets, and promised an appropriate response. In retaliatory raids, the Pakistani air force struck civilian targets in Indian Kashmir, causing at least eight deaths and dozens of injuries. The tense atmosphere led to the closure of schools and airports and the cancellation of hundreds of flights in both nations, while the international community expressed deep concern over the risk of escalation between two nuclear powers.
Kashmir: Crossroads of Identities, Resources, and Strategies
To understand the scale of the crisis, it is necessary to return to the historical roots of the Kashmir issue. The region, nestled between India, Pakistan, and China, has always been a battleground for clashes and claims. Its strategic importance unfolds on several levels: control over the water resources of the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers is vital for agriculture and water supply in both countries; its geographic position, bordering China and Afghanistan, makes Kashmir a crossroads for trade and influence in South Asia; finally, the region’s symbolic value is enormous, representing for India the secularism of the state and for Pakistan the completion of the Muslim homeland project.
The dispute dates back to the 1947 Partition, when the Hindu maharaja of Kashmir decided to join India despite the Muslim majority of the population. This choice sparked the first of three armed conflicts between India and Pakistan (1947, 1965, 1999) and decades of minor clashes, fueled by nationalism, territorial claims, and the actions of separatist and jihadist groups. In recent years, India has strengthened its administrative control over the region, revoking Jammu and Kashmir’s special status in 2019 and intensifying military presence and surveillance. Pakistan, on the other hand, has continued to support, directly or indirectly, armed groups and terrorist networks, while officially denying any involvement.
Pakistan: A Mosaic of Identities and Contradictions
Pakistan’s fragility as a nation-state is a key element in understanding its foreign policy and its role in the Kashmir crisis. Founded in 1947 as a homeland for the Muslims of the Indian subcontinent, Pakistan has always struggled to build a cohesive national identity. Ethnic divisions-among Punjabis, Sindhis, Pashtuns, and Balochis-intertwine with religious differences between Sunnis, Shiites, and minorities, generating political and social tensions that are also reflected in governance. Pakistan’s political history is marked by an alternation between civilian governments and military regimes, with the army often taking a central role, justified by the need to ensure security and national unity. However, this military centrality has limited democratic development, fueling corruption, nepotism, and institutional instability.
A crucial event in Pakistan’s history was the 1971 civil war, which led to the secession of East Pakistan and the birth of Bangladesh. This national trauma left deep wounds and reinforced the perception of an existential threat from both India and internal divisions. The main political parties, from the progressive Pakistan People’s Party to the conservative Pakistan Muslim League-N, have struggled to govern a country marked by economic crises, uncontrolled population growth, widespread poverty, and terrorism.
Islam, in all its forms, plays a fundamental role in Pakistani identity and politics, with religious parties promoting a conservative interpretation and influencing internal dynamics. The support, more or less covert, for militant groups active in Kashmir responds both to domestic political needs-strengthening nationalist and religious consensus-and to a strategy of containing India, perceived as an existential threat.
Economy, Instability, and External Dependencies
Economically, Pakistan finds itself in an extremely fragile situation. After the 2023 recession, the country depends on a seven-billion-dollar loan from the International Monetary Fund and Saudi aid, without which it risks default. India, although experiencing slower growth compared to previous years, maintains an expansionary trajectory, with a rising GDP and progressive industrial and technological diversification. This economic asymmetry is also reflected in the ability to sustain a prolonged war effort and in resilience to international crises.
The nuclear doctrines of the two countries add an additional layer of risk: India possesses about 160 nuclear warheads, Pakistan 170, both with the potential for use in the event of an “existential threat.” Even a limited nuclear conflict would have catastrophic consequences for the entire region and the world, with millions of deaths, economic collapse, and a possible “nuclear winter” with global effects.
The Asian Great Game: China, Saudi Arabia, USA
The Kashmir crisis is not just a bilateral issue between India and Pakistan but is set within a much broader geopolitical context. China, a historic ally of Pakistan, has invested over sixty-two billion dollars in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a strategic infrastructure linking China’s Xinjiang region to the port of Gwadar, giving Beijing direct access to the Indian Ocean and strengthening its presence in South Asia. China also controls part of the Kashmiri territory (Aksai Chin) and views India’s rise as a threat to its regional hegemony project.
Saudi Arabia, Islamabad’s main financier, has granted loans of over 130 billion dollars but in recent years is pushing for a rapprochement with Israel, creating tensions with Pakistan’s traditional stance. The United States and the European Union, while promoting diplomatic mediation, are torn between strategic interests-the US-India alliance to contain China-and humanitarian pressures related to human rights violations in the region. Russia and Turkey, on the other hand, maintain a more cautious attitude, closely observing the crisis’s evolution without taking clear positions.
China and India: Rivalry, Dialogue, and Fragile Détente
In 2025, relations between China and India remain marked by deep strategic competition, especially for control of Himalayan border areas such as Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh. After the 2020 armed clash in the Galwan Valley, which caused the deaths of at least twenty Indian soldiers, the situation has remained tense, with confrontations and militarization along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). However, between late 2024 and early 2025, signs of détente have emerged: agreements for partial troop withdrawals, the resumption of direct flights and journalist exchanges, and a meeting between Modi and Xi Jinping during the BRICS+ summit in Kazan, the first direct dialogue between the two leaders in five years.
Despite these positive signals, mutual distrust remains high. India perceives China’s expanding influence in neighboring countries-Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Myanmar-and Beijing’s support for Islamabad as a threat, while China views the strengthening of India-US ties with suspicion. Both powers seek to define their respective spheres of influence in Asia, with China engaged in the Belt and Road Initiative and India pursuing its “Look East Policy” to counter Chinese strategic encirclement. Economically, despite tensions, trade between the two countries is growing and represents a significant deterrent against possible military escalation.
Indian Ocean: New Chessboard of Global Competition
The Indian Ocean region has become the hub of global maritime trade and, consequently, an area of growing strategic competition. The China-Pakistan Corridor and the port of Gwadar give Beijing privileged access to trade routes toward Africa, the Middle East, and Europe, while India is investing in Iran’s Chabahar port to strengthen its position and bypass the Pakistani blockade toward Afghanistan and Central Asia. This infrastructural competition is part of a broader strategy to contain Chinese expansionism, also supported by the United States.
Prospects and Solutions
The latest escalation between India and Pakistan demonstrates how Kashmir remains a powder keg ready to explode, with the risk of dragging major powers into the crisis. The solution requires a return to bilateral dialogue, interrupted since 2019, international monitoring of human rights violations, and concrete measures against the financing of terrorist groups. However, the stakes go beyond regional borders: in a multipolar world, Kashmir has become the testing ground for conflict management in the atomic age.
India is not relying solely on military confrontation to pressure Pakistan; it is actively pursuing a range of alternative strategies designed to exploit Pakistan’s economic vulnerabilities. These measures include diplomatic efforts, economic sanctions, and trade restrictions, all intended to isolate Pakistan internationally and weaken its financial stability.
For example, Indian officials have urged the IMF to deny Pakistan a crucial $7 billion loan, which is vital for stabilizing Pakistan’s economy and funding essential public services. India has also withdrawn from a longstanding river-sharing treaty, a move that Pakistan has described as an act of war due to its potential impact on Pakistan’s water security.
On the economic front, India has implemented a comprehensive trade embargo, banning all imports from Pakistan, closing its airspace to Pakistani aircraft, and shutting down the Attari border-the main land trade route between the two countries. Indian ports are now closed to Pakistani ships, resulting in a total freeze of bilateral trade. Additionally, India is lobbying international organizations such as the Asian Development Bank and the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) to cut aid and increase scrutiny of Pakistan.
These actions are already having a severe impact on Pakistan’s fragile economy, which is grappling with high inflation, mounting debt, and dwindling foreign reserves8. India’s approach demonstrates a calculated use of economic and diplomatic tools to exert pressure on Pakistan, beyond the threat of direct military action.
The region’s future will depend on the ability of India, Pakistan, and China to balance rivalry and cooperation, avoiding the next crisis from turning into a global catastrophe. In this scenario, South Asia’s stability remains an open challenge, requiring strategic vision, political courage, and renewed multilateral commitment.