Author: Alberto Cossu – 11/05/2025
The Evolution of Turkey’s Strategic Projection: from the Mediterranean sea to the Indian Ocean
Autore: Alberto Cossu 10/05/2025
The Republic of Turkey, a crossroads of civilizations and a natural bridge between Europe and Asia, has historically anchored its foreign and security policy to the Mediterranean Sea. The doctrine of the “Blue Homeland” has codified this centrality, outlining Turkish maritime interests, exclusive economic zones, and Ankara’s ambitions in a contested sea, often the scene of intricate geopolitical dynamics and heated disputes with neighboring countries. However, the constantly evolving global strategic landscape has gradually led Turkey to turn its gaze towards a more distant horizon: the Indian Ocean. This region, vital for international trade, a crossroads of crucial maritime routes, and a theater of increasing power dynamics, is emerging as an area of strategic interest that is increasingly relevant for Ankara. This transition does not represent an abandonment of the Mediterranean, but rather an expansion of Turkey’s strategic horizons, an attempt to project its influence in a rapidly transforming global context, partly building on the experience and capabilities developed in the “mare nostrum”.
The Mediterranean remains the focus of Turkey’s security policy. The “Blue Homeland” is not simply a claim to maritime rights, but a true doctrine that informs Turkey’s strategic posture in the region. Disputes with Greece and Cyprus regarding the delimitation of exclusive economic zones in the Eastern Mediterranean are concrete manifestations of Turkey’s determination to protect its own interests and claim a primary role. Turkey’s involvement in the Libyan conflict, with military and political support for the Government of National Accord, has represented a significant extension of Ankara’s influence in the Southern Mediterranean, driven by national security considerations, economic interests linked to energy resources, and the desire to counter the rise of regional actors perceived as hostile. Simultaneously, Turkey’s complex and prolonged involvement in the Syrian conflict, with military operations aimed at ensuring the security of its southern borders and countering terrorist threats, has had direct repercussions on the stability of the Eastern Mediterranean, highlighting the projection of power and the complexity of Turkish interests in the region. In this context, the Turkish naval fleet plays a leading role, acting as an instrument of deterrence, power projection, and defense of national maritime interests. Diplomacy, often assertive, and soft power complete the framework of instruments employed by Turkey to pursue its objectives in the Mediterranean, navigating an environment marked by competing regional alliances and the presence of external powers with often divergent interests.
The emergence of the Indian Ocean as an area of growing strategic interest for Turkey is the result of a convergence of geopolitical and economic factors. The centrality of the Indian Ocean for global trade is undeniable: enormous volumes of goods, energy, and resources pass through its routes, connecting Asia, Africa, and Europe. In a global context characterized by increasing economic interdependence, Turkey, with its ambition to establish itself as a regional commercial and logistics hub, cannot ignore the strategic importance of this ocean. The Chinese Belt and Road Initiative, with its implications for global connectivity, has further highlighted the need for Turkey to diversify its strategic partnerships and trade routes, avoiding excessive dependence on a single project or potentially unstable geopolitical dynamics. In this scenario, Pakistan assumes the role of a strategic partner that can help develop a stronger presence in the area. The deep historical, cultural, and religious ties that unite the two countries provide a solid foundation for increasingly close cooperation, particularly in the defense sector.
Military cooperation between Turkey and Pakistan represents a fundamental pillar of their bilateral relationship, characterized by increasing intensity and diversification over the years. This solid bond is rooted in historical, cultural, and religious affinities, but has evolved into a strategic partnership with significant implications for regional security and the projection of influence of both countries, especially in the context of Turkey’s projection towards the Indian Ocean. Turkish military aid to Pakistan manifests itself through various modalities, ranging from the supply of advanced armaments to industrial cooperation in the defense sector, to joint training and the transfer of military technology.
In recent years, Turkey has emerged as an increasingly important arms supplier for Pakistan, contributing significantly to the modernization of its armed forces. The main Turkish supplies include Bayraktar TB2 and Akinci drones, platforms that have demonstrated their effectiveness in various operational scenarios and that strengthen Pakistan’s surveillance and attack capabilities. Ankara has also provided Islamabad with Asisguard Songar drones, used for precision operations and reconnaissance. In the naval sector, cooperation is particularly significant. A 2018 agreement provides for the construction of four MILGEM-class corvettes for the Pakistani Navy by the Turkish company STM Defence Technologies. Two of these corvettes have been built in Turkey and delivered to Pakistan, while the remaining two are under construction at the Karachi shipyard, with a significant transfer of technology aimed at strengthening the Pakistani naval industry. STM is also involved in the modernization of the Pakistani Navy’s Agosta 90B submarines, a project that extends the operational life and capabilities of these important naval assets. Industrial cooperation represents another crucial aspect of the military partnership. The two countries have launched a collaboration for the joint production of components for the Turkish fifth-generation fighter aircraft TAI TF Kaan, an ambitious project that aims to strengthen the aerospace capabilities of both countries. The possibility of establishing an assembly line for the KAAN in Pakistan has also been discussed. In the missile sector, there are discussions on the co-production of anti-tank guided missiles (ATGWs) and short and long-range air-to-air missiles, such as the Turkish Gokdogan missile and the Pakistani FAZ-2 missile, with a significant exchange of technology.
Military agreements between Turkey and Pakistan provide a formal framework for this growing cooperation. The “Military Consultative Group” established in 1988 represents a long-standing mechanism for dialogue. In February 2025, during a visit by Turkish President Erdoğan to Pakistan, as many as 24 cooperation agreements were signed in various sectors, including defense. These agreements include protocols on the exchange of military and civilian personnel for social and cultural purposes, memoranda of understanding on cooperation in aerial electronic warfare, and protocols on training and cooperation in military health. A specific agreement was signed between the Turkish Presidency of Defense Industries and the Pakistani Ministry of Defense Production, aimed at strengthening industrial collaboration in the defense sector. A memorandum of understanding between Turkish Aerospace Industries (TUSAS) and the Pakistan Maritime Research and Development Institute (NRDI) aims to intensify collaboration in aerospace and maritime research. Pakistan has used Turkish-made drones to attack India. Turkey is Pakistan’s second largest arms supplier, and among its closest allies, which has consistently backed it on Kashmir. India has adjusted its own geopolitical partnerships to take on the Pak-Turkey nexus.
This solid military partnership is part of Turkey’s strategic projection towards the Indian Ocean, providing Ankara with a reliable and strategically positioned ally in a region of growing importance. Pakistan, with its position in the Western Indian Ocean, represents a crucial foothold for Turkey, especially in a regional context marked by complex and often tense relations with India. Ankara’s traditional closeness to Islamabad, while maintaining channels of communication with New Delhi, outlines a precise orientation in its projection towards the Western Indian Ocean, influencing regional dynamics and alliance choices. Military cooperation, particularly in the maritime domain, can also be interpreted as an attempt to balance forces in the Indian Ocean and protect the common interests of Turkey and Pakistan in the region. The strength of this military partnership, based on a sharing of strategic interests and growing interdependence in the defense sector, represents a key element in Turkey’s broader strategy of projecting influence towards new geopolitical horizons.
Parallel to the strategic partnership with Pakistan, Turkey’s growing presence and influence in the Horn of Africa, with particular attention to Somalia, represents another direction of Ankara’s strategic projection towards the Indian Ocean. Turkey’s commitment to Somalia, through significant economic investments, military cooperation, and humanitarian assistance, has established a strategic bridgehead in a region of crucial importance for maritime security and access to the vital trade routes of the Red Sea and the Western Indian Ocean. This presence, although still in the consolidation phase, testifies to Turkey’s willingness to extend its influence in geographically strategically relevant areas, in line with a more assertive and power-projection-oriented foreign policy.
In this dynamic context, the announced India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) introduces further elements of complexity and potential competition. Turkey’s exclusion from this ambitious infrastructural and logistical project has sparked a critical reaction from Ankara, which perceives it as an attempt to marginalize its historical role as a crucial link between the East and the West. In response, Turkey is actively promoting its own alternative, the “Iraq Development Road,” a project that aims to connect the Persian Gulf to Europe through Iraq and Turkish territory. This initiative underscores Ankara’s determination to remain a key player in global connectivity and not to be excluded from new geopolitical configurations. In this scenario, Saudi Arabia’s ambitions to transform itself into a leading global logistics hub also take on significant relevance. Saudi Arabia’s massive investments in port, rail, and logistics infrastructure along the coasts of the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf position it as a potentially competing actor but also as a possible partner for Turkey in its efforts to project towards the Indian Ocean. The dynamic between Turkish and Saudi ambitions in the logistics and regional connectivity sector will have significant implications for the future configuration of trade routes and the balance of power in the area.
In conclusion, Turkey’s strategic projection is undergoing a phase of significant evolution, extending from its established positions in the Mediterranean to the promising waters of the Indian Ocean. This expansion is driven by a complex interplay of economic imperatives, geostrategic considerations, and the desire to diversify partnerships in a multipolar world. The experience gained in the Mediterranean, despite its specificities and challenges, provides a frame of reference and some transferable capabilities to address the complexities of the new strategic theater. The solid partnership with Pakistan, in a delicate regional context marked by dynamics with India, and the growing presence in the Horn of Africa represent the pillars of this projection towards the Indian Ocean. However, Turkey will have to navigate carefully in a dynamic and competitive geopolitical environment, taking into account initiatives such as the IMEC and the ambitions of other regional actors, particularly Saudi Arabia, to build an effective and sustainable role in a region that is of increasing importance for global balance.