Author: Alberto Cossu – 03/06/2025
Global Oil Refining: Africa’s Emerging Role and Its Impact on the Mediterranean Region
The global oil refining sector is continuously evolving, influenced by economic, geopolitical, and technological factors, as well as emerging realities such as Africa, which is poised to play an increasingly central role in the world energy market. This article provides an overview of global refining, breaking down capacity by continent and key countries (estimate), with a focus on the transformations and opportunities related to the African continent.
Overview of Global Refining
In 2025, the global refining capacity is approximately 83 million barrels per day (bpd), with oil demand reaching about 104 million bpd in the first quarter of the year, mainly driven by the growth of Asian economies such as China and India. Asia remains the leading refining region, followed by North America, Europe, and the Middle East.
However, the sector faces significant challenges: in Europe and the Mediterranean, refineries must comply with increasingly stringent environmental regulations and compete with new, modern plants in Africa and Asia. Moreover, market volatility, energy transition, and sustainability requirements are driving a profound transformation of the industry.
Refining Capacity Distribution by Continent and Key Countries
Global refining capacity is concentrated in several key regions:
- Asia: With over 25–30 million bpd, Asia is the world’s largest refining hub, led by China (over 18 million bpd) and India (5–6 million bpd). The region continues to expand capacity with modern plants to meet rapidly growing domestic demand.[1]
- North America: The United States and Canada have about 18 million bpd of capacity, featuring technologically advanced plants and playing a leading role in refined product exports.[2]
- Europe and the Mediterranean: With a combined capacity of 12–13 million bpd, this area includes important refineries in Italy, Spain, France, and Greece. Italy, with the Saras refinery in Sardinia, is a strategic hub in the Mediterranean. However, the European sector faces pressure from high costs and strict environmental regulations.[3].
- Middle East: Countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have over 7 million bpd of capacity, often integrated with crude oil production and strongly export-oriented.[4]
- Africa: The theoretical refining capacity is about 1.36 million bpd, but actual utilization is much lower (around 30%) due to obsolete plants and infrastructure problems. Africa heavily depends on imports of refined products, covering approximately 80% of its internal demand through foreign purchases.[5]
Refining Capacity by Continent (million bpd)
| Continent/Country | Refining Capacity (million bpd) | Key Notes |
| Asia (China, India, etc.) | 25–30 | Largest global capacity, continuous growth |
| North America (USA, Canada) | 18+ | Advanced technology, major exporter |
| Europe and Mediterranean | 12-15 | Mature refineries, stringent regulations |
| Middle East | 10 | Capacity integrated with crude production |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | 1.36 (theoretical), ~0.4 actual | Underutilized capacity, major projects underway |
Estimate from different sources
Africa’s Emerging Role in Refining
Despite Africa’s rich oil reserves (estimated at approximately 125 billion barrels), the continent has so far played only a marginal role in refining. Most of the crude oil produced is exported, while the majority of Africa’s refined product needs are met through imports from other foreign countries, mainly European ones.
However, the situation is rapidly changing thanks to significant infrastructure investments:
- The Dangote Refinery in Nigeria: With a capacity of 650,000 bpd, it is the largest refinery in Africa and one of the largest in the world. Its operation marks a turning point, aiming to meet Nigeria’s internal demand and export refined products to other African and international markets[6].
- Other Projects in Africa: Countries like Angola are planning expansions and new refineries, while energy investment funds aim to support sector development.[7]
The increase in African refining capacity will reduce dependence on imports from Europe and Asia, altering global trade flows and enhancing the continent’s competitiveness.
Impacts on the Mediterranean and Italy
The growth of African refining, especially the Dangote refinery, will have significant effects on the Mediterranean region:
- Reduction in African Demand for European Refined Products: West Africa, a traditional export market for European refineries, will see a significant decline in fuel imports, directly impacting Mediterranean exports[8].
- Competitive Pressure on Mediterranean Refineries: Facilities like Saras (about 300.000 bpd) in Sardinia will face tougher competition, tighter margins, and the need for investments to improve efficiency and sustainability[9].
- Changes in Crude Oil Flows: Nigeria may allocate more crude oil to domestic refining, reducing exports to Europe, with consequences for prices and supply strategies[10]
For Italy and other main refineries countries, the challenge will be to adapt to this new scenario by focusing on innovation, sustainability, and market diversification.
Conclusions
The global oil refining sector is undergoing profound transformation. Asia and North America remain the main hubs, but Africa is emerging as a key player thanks to strategic investments like the Dangote refinery.
This evolution will dent global flows of refined products and crude oil, with significant impacts on the Mediterranean and Italy. Mediterranean refineries that export to Africa will need to innovate and adapt to maintain competitiveness in an increasingly global and dynamic market.
[1] https://www.eia.gov/analysis/globalrefining/outlookglobalrefining.pdf
[2] https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_unc_dcu_nus_a.htm
[3]https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world/petroleum-and-other-liquids/annual-refined-petroleum-products-production?pd=5&p=000gfs&u=0&f=A&v=mapbubble&a=-&i=none&vo=value&t=C&g=00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001&l=249-ruvvvvvfvtvnvv1vrvvvvfvvvvvvfvvvou20evvvvvvvvvvnvvvs0008&s=315532800000&e=1483228800000 https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/where-african-refineries-bridgewater-advisors/
[4] https://www.eia.gov/analysis/globalrefining/outlookglobalrefining.pdf
[5] https://www.africarivista.it/raffinerie-di-carburanti-lafrica-in-grave-sofferenza/202361/
[6] https://hawilti.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Refineries-Watch-2024-Report.pdf
[7] https://www.dailysabah.com/business/energy/african-oil-refineries-operate-below-capacity-as-fuel-prices-rocket
[8] https://theconversation.com/dangote-launches-africas-biggest-oil-refinery-4-ways-it-will-affect-nigeria-205685
[9] https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2593337-saras-eyes-opportunities-under-vitol-ownership
[10] https://businessday.ng/analysis/article/can-nigeria-champion-africas-refinery-renaissance-in-2023/