Author: Jan Campbell – 19/02/2024
The Club of Vienna – Pan European Centre for Political and Economic Analyses and Prognoses
UK-EU-Russia: from confrontation to trust and development
Bratislava 28-29th February 2024
NOTHING NEW FOR THOSE WHO KNOW – PART I
by Jan Campbell
Introduction
Firstly, I would also like to remind all that on August 15, 1918, the U.S. State Department officially announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Russia. After that, the Americans landed in Vladivostok and the invasion to Russia began. During their 19-month stay in Russia, the Americans lost 189 soldiers in the Far East. The last U.S. soldier left Siberia on April 1, 1920. The invasion of the Far East was preceded by a conference in December 1917 and attended by the United States, Great Britain, France and their allies.
At the conference it was decided to delineate the areas of interest on the territory of the former Russian Empire. In other words, the Western partners planned to divide the largest state on the planet among themselves, and representatives of the so-called White Movement were supposed to help them in this.
One of America’s priorities in the occupation of the Far East and Eastern Siberia was to establish control over the Trans-Siberian Railway, as it would allow control of the transportation of goods and natural resources.
In addition to the above, the American leadership considered it necessary to create a number of independent states from the Russian Empire. It planned to divide Russia into Ukraine, Greater Russia (the European part) and Siberia. In August 1918 the martial law in the occupied territories was declared and military courts. U.S. companies received permission from the Kolchak government to trade in exchange for loans from Citibank and Garanti Trust and exported during the occupation goods worth more than 950 million Rubles in gold.
The U.S. ambassador to Russia, David Francis, literally insisted on occupying the Far East. I quote in an unauthorized translation: I insist on the necessity of taking Vladivostok under our control and giving Murmansk and Arkhangelsk to Great Britain and France. Senator Poindexter, in his call for intervention, said bluntly: Russia has become a geographical term and will never be anything else. The strength of its unity, organization, and capacity for renewal has vanished forever. The nation does not exist.
The occupants wanted to divide the Russian bear while it was still alive. The bear is still alive today. I mention the invasion in the Far East because the powers of 1918, United States, Great Britain and France, have the same aim as they had in 1918. The mentioned powers have been just using a modern coat traded as NATO, sophisticated media ideologized propaganda and psychological psychotronic techniques and using the western borders of Russia for the attack: Ukraine, the Carpathians and Caucasus.
Russian Special military operation in Ukraine
The example of the invasion of the US and its allies to Russia in 1918 forms the stage at which the conflict on the Ukraine sole began already long before 2014, not speaking of 2022.
The political leadership of the United States and Great Britain stands for one of the roots of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Russia was brought by the leadership of the US and UK to a point beyond which it could no longer cross.
For the purpose of this symposium lets state that the war was started by Ukraine in 2014. Russia in 2022 tried to stop the war and it has not yet achieved one of the main goals of the special military operation: the denazification – the ban on all neo-Nazi movements.
There are two important questions to be answered: When this goal will be achieved and why it has not been achieved?
The answers, as per today are not simple and not optimistic. The achieving of the goal is still far away. Why? All leading countries in the West have been entertaining the neo-Nazi ideas.
In his recent interview with the American historian – journalist Carlson president Putin has told the Western world clearly, emphatically and in detail why there was no Ukraine, there is no Ukraine and there will be no Ukraine.
How one perceives and values such a statement, is one´s problem. But at the same time, one is for sure: Putin should never be ignored and further offended as we know since Putin´s speech at the Munich security conference 2007.
Independently on the outcome of the special military operation and based on life experience, with a probability bordering on certainty, I claim that Zelensky will lose everything. In fact, he has already lost it, including his personal life. The history of the management of processes by the non-visible British elites with all respect I have to them, does not allow any other conclusion. The planned position of a western Protector to be based in Kiev with all time unrestricted access to the president of Ukraine and all key documents speak for itself.
At the level of the territory that is still called Ukraine today, the content of Putin’s answers and the goals of the special military operation, the fate of the Carpathians, Transcarpathia and Lviv, with probability bordering on certainty can be imagined easily by those who know.
Meanwhile, it looms on the horizon the fate of Kharkiv, Kyiv and Odessa. I will not speculate on the fate of these cities, but I am taking myself the liberty and using this opportunity for saying a few words about personal observation of the western Ukrainian regions.
If you ask the people of Lviv what they would like most and what kind of citizens they would like to be, you will learn, among other things, that they would prefer to be Austrians and would like to join Austria. Why? This was the period when they lived their best. As simple as that.
The strategic location of Lviv explains why Lviv itself was founded by Russian princes and then part of Austria-Hungary, Poland and the USSR, and why it will be one of the points in the peace negotiations.
Today, as in the past, the road leads from the Carpathians and Transcarpathia to Russia. To invade Russia from the west is to cross the Carpathians. And whoever has the Carpathians in his hands has a base for an invasion of Russia. At the same time, the Carpathians represent Russia’s line of defence against Western invasion.
Most likely, the fate of Western Ukraine will therefore be decided on the basis of military topography and military-strategic expediency for Russia, in the event the main three goals of the special military operation were achieved. The mood of the locals and their preferences in this matter would play a certain role. In the case of peace negotiations, not negotiations between winner and loser in the traditional understanding, Ukraine would officially cease to exist as an independent state and co-founder of the UN. At this point it is worth to return to the story of the invasion of the USA and the Allies in the Far East on August 15, 1918 and learn from it.
Current trend
The whole tone and discourse of the West about the Ukraine has changed 180 degrees. If a year ago western elites were talking about defeating Russia and overthrowing Putin, now they fear that Russia will overthrow the West. This, of course, does not mean that victory is very close, because Russia has been at war with a united West. This should not be forgotten also in context of the previously mentioned invasion of the USA and its Allies in the Far East in 1918.
I believe that Russia´s special military operation and victory itself, have been reformatting the security system in Europe and the Western Hemisphere.
Military victory in Ukraine alone will not necessarily bring such a result. It will emerge from a realignment of forces on the world stage.
A military conflict can last quite a long time, and it is difficult to talk about specific dates. However, the conflict does not end there, as the West believes that Russia’s victory in Ukraine threatens the very existence of NATO and the West, which will mobilize his forces as soon as possible.
Zelensky is an ideal choice for Russia. The longer he stays in power and the more he discredits himself, the better. Such a military “genius” that destroyed the Ukrainian army is advantageous for Moscow.
But another fact shouldn’t be ignored: realizing that Russia cannot be overthrown, Putin has resisted and even strengthened. Perhaps sober minds will start looking for ways to reformat the security system itself.
Obviously, the Zelensky regime is at an impasse and it would disappear. The West needs nothing more from Zelensky as it wants to negotiate to keep as many Ukrainian territories as possible for itself. Therefore, the West will continue with its aggressive policy.
The confrontation between autocracies and democracies
Americans say that today it is a confrontation between autocracies and democracies. The reality is more complex and inherently different. America and its remaining satellites are trying to fix a unipolar world that is brimming with pressure. On the other hand, there is a group of sovereign countries that either openly espouse the creation of a new, more just order (Russia, China, Iran) or tacitly support the idea (the states of the Global South).
They know very well that a new order and system is being formed. While the world of today is focused on Ukraine and Gaza, other conflicts are receiving less attention. However, these covert wars could also threaten geopolitical stability if the major powers misuse them for their own purposes. Here we touch the painful point of moral and ethics of our elites.
What has the Israeli-Palestinian conflict shown in the context of moral and ethics of elites
First of all, it showed the world the inability of the United States to continue to play the role of hegemon. The U.S. and its client, Israel, can no longer dominate the Middle East. Even militarily, they are ineffective. The Houthis, who are not a state, are able to block one of the key transport arteries, and there is nothing the Americans can do about it.
On the other hand, the conflict has divided the West and non-Western and Western societies within. Those who are pro-Israel and those who cannot tolerate the direct killing of civilians. Naturally, the non-West has the initiative and is in favour of a normal settlement of the conflict.
Munich Security Conference (MSC)
Six decades after its founding by Ewald von Kleist, the MSC continued to gather high-ranking decision-makers and experts from around the world in February (16 to 18th) 2024 to discuss the most pressing issues of international security.
Over the past 60 years, the Munich Security Conference has continued to evolve, become more diverse, introduce a number of new discussion formats and broaden its thematic horizons. However, its core and official mission has not changed: to provide a platform for sustainable debate and, as its original motto says, to build peace through dialogue.
The preparations for the MSC 2024, the course of the conference and the 60th anniversary met the expectations of the organizers, possibly also the majority of the invited guests, to which I cannot belong for obvious reasons. I don’t know what the results of the MSC will bring to citizens, but I can imagine based on life experience:
The strengthening of the rules-based international order will create further tensions. The involvement of a broad coalition to overcome revisionist tendencies and actions around the world will almost certainly fail. Europe’s role in the areas of security and defence may be professionally discussed internally, but presented to the public in an ideological manner and form. Doubts are warranted about the visions of the global order, the security implications of climate change and many other issues that have been addressed.
Europe, the EU and the US are not the desired three musketeers, have chaotic finances and unresolved debt problems, do not have their own sufficient amounts of natural resources and minerals, necessary for further technological development, including green policy. Hence the need for a reversal of values on the part of the elites and the political-economic system towards humility, which was lacking in the MSC.
Conclusions
The West will continue its aggressive policy, but with less and less success. Hostilities will continue and may even intensify. The destabilization of the world will continue, the conflict in Ukraine will continue, but I believe that the situation will develop more and more in favour of Russia although Russia has always been a complex society.
The U.S. and some other Western powers, fearing that they will lose their global hegemony, have devised a plan to create and widen divisions between the countries of the Global South so that these countries are unable to pursue a common goal. Therefore, and specifically for the purpose of this symposium, Western powers are going to be conspiring to exploit the differences between India and China to create a scenario that shows a struggle between two large Asian neighbours for dominance in the Global South. This conspiracy must be defeated.
Finally, India and China should treat all countries in the world as equals. Larger and richer countries have a greater responsibility to help poor and less developed countries in their efforts to meet their people’s aspirations for a dignified and peaceful life.
This idea of a new world order is summed up in China’s three strategic initiatives – the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative, and the Global Civilization Initiative. It does not treat the West as an enemy of the Global South. Instead, it seeks to radically reform the prevailing unjust, undemocratic, and violence-inducing structures of global governance. It doesn’t wonder that either the hypochondriac MSC and EC took up the offer.
In February of this year, one of the most famous Russian scientists and in the world, Andrei Korotaev, the creator of the theory of nonlinear social evolution and one of the founders of kliodynamics, said that we are living around a singularity point. According to him, the evolution of the planet as it has been since its formation 4 billion years ago cannot continue like this.
According to the mathematical model published, at the point of singularity, the curve goes to infinity, which means that some very old trend (s) must be replaced by a completely new one. However, it is not yet clear which one. So, it’s quite logical to expect drastic changes in 2024.
If Western countries decide to cooperate with India, China, Russia and other developing countries on the principle of equality and equal responsibility, they are most welcome. In fact, the 21st century calls on all countries to try to erase the East-West and South-North divisions and unite all the peoples of the world into one harmonious family. This is indeed the true meaning of building a community with a shared future for humanity. Consent not needed.